Bulldogs battle Raiders for Horizon League crown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the fifth straight season the 12th- ranked Butler Bulldogs will take part in the Horizon League Tournament Championship Game when they host the Wright State Raiders this evening at the Hinkle Fieldhouse.

The Raiders finished the regular season with a respectable 12-6 mark in league play, and that was good enough for the team to earn the second seed in the tournament and a bye to the semifinals. In the semifinal round, the Raiders defeated the seventh-seeded Detroit Titans by a 69-50 margin.

As for the Bulldogs, they were outstanding this year, posting just the fourth- ever perfect season in the Horizon League by finishing with an 18-0 ledger. Butler is also an impressive 14-0 at home and since Brad Stevens took over for the Bulldogs, the team is 43-3 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The team carried that momentum into its semifinal matchup with Milwaukee, posting a 68-59 win over the Panthers on Saturday. This might be the fifth straight Horizon League tournament title match for Butler, but the team has hoisted the trophy just once during this run.

One of those losses in the championship game for Butler came in 2007 against the Raiders by a five-point margin. Despite that loss, the Bulldogs still own a 22-15 edge over Wright State in the all-time series, and that includes two victories during the regular season.

The Raiders used their tenacious defensive play to grab a victory over Detroit in their semifinal matchup. Wright State held Detroit to just 50 points in the win and limited the Titans to a meager 39.1 percent shooting effort that included an equally poor 2-of-15 clip from long range. Wright State has used its stingy defensive play throughout the season to corral victories, as the team is limiting the opposition to just 60.6 ppg. At the other end of the floor the team has been paced by Vaughn Duggins and his 14.4 ppg. Todd Brown is the only other player netting double figures on the season, and comes into this game with 13.0 ppg. Duggins posted 12 points in the win over Detroit, while Brown added 10 points, seven rebounds and six assists. The team was led by Ronnie Thomas and Troy Tabler though, as Thomas scored a team-best 18 points, while Tabler posted 16 points.

All five starters for the Bulldogs scored in double figures in Butler's victory over Milwaukee in semifinal round action. Matt Howard led the way with 18 points for Butler, which shot a respectable 47.7 percent from the floor, and also connected on 22-of-32 shots from behind the arc. Ronald Nored added 13 points and eight rebounds, while Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley tallied 12 and 11 points, respectively. Gordon Hayward helped out as well, posting a double-double of 10 points and 13 rebounds. Hayward has been the main source of production throughout the season and comes into the title game averaging 15.6 ppg and 8.6 rpg. Mack is contributing 13.9 ppg on the season, while Howard is posting 12.2 ppg, to go along with 5.3 rpg. Veasley is helping out with 10.4 ppg, while Nored is pacing the team with 111 assists.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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