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07/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We know this much is true about the Texas Rangers: on paper, they are a better ballclub than they were before Friday.
When the Rangers traded for Seattle Mariners' ace Cliff Lee, they effectively complemented their potent lineup with a bona fide horse, one who last year proved himself to be more than capable of handling a pressure-packed postseason workload.
Lee comes to a Rangers team that already holds a 4 1/2-game lead in the American League West. Rangers fans are still giddy enough about the acquisition to give Lee a mulligan for his Rangers debut Saturday against Baltimore, when he allowed six earned runs in nine innings. In fact, the whole team could use a mulligan after suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Orioles, owners of the worst record in the American League.
"Good time for a break. We need it," manager Ron Washington said. "Sometimes it's not the best team that wins, it's the team that plays the best."
Indeed, there figures to be plenty of days ahead when Texas will play the role of favorite. And with a few weeks remaining until the July 31 trade deadline, it will be interesting to see the trickle-down effect the Lee deal will have on division rivals Oakland and L.A.
Another thing to keep an eye on during the second half of the season is the budding Triple Crown race between the Rangers' Josh Hamilton and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Those two are tied for the Major League lead in batting average (.346) and are tied for second with 22 home runs apiece, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista with 24. Hamilton put himself into the mix with an insane month of June, when he hit .454 with nine home runs and 31 RBI. Cabrera has the edge with a Major League-best 77 RBI, while Hamilton ranks fourth with 64. But if anybody can produce runs in bunches, it's Hamilton, as he proved in 2008 with a league-high 130 RBI and 331 total bases.
The question is, will he be able to pick up right where he left off coming out of the break?
Another storyline worth watching will be Lee's impact on the rest of the rotation. Texas has already gotten healthy contribution from starters C.J. Wilson (7-5, 3.35) and Colby Lewis (8-5, 3.33). Can they continue to pitch effectively under Lee's shadow? According to Fox Sports Southwest, Lee's debut was the most watched television program in the Dallas-Fort Worth area on Saturday, doubling the team's average Nielsen household rating this season.
Even with a new-look rotation, the offense will continue to garner the most attention. Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero are having tremendous rebound seasons. Ian Kinsler is hitting .310 and is on pace to shatter his career-high in walks despite missing the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain.
Then, there is the pending sale of the team which has been an ongoing soap opera in the Fort Worth area. On Monday, team president Nolan Ryan sued his own ballclub for 'derailing' the deal and asked a bankruptcy judge to approve the sale.
While that drama continues to unfold, the Rangers will open the second half armed with a shiny new toy atop the starting rotation, and looking to build on their division lead.
ANGELS SPUTTER INTO ALL-STAR BREAK
While the first-place Rangers were suffering an improbable sweep to close out the season's unofficial first half, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were doing a nosedive of their own. Rather than seize the opportunity to gain some ground, the Angels flatlined, as they've now lost eight of their last 10.
All told, things could be worse. Prior to that 10-game stretch, the Angels were 3 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West. Now, they are 4 1/2 games back, thanks to the Rangers dropping seven of their last 10. For now, chalk it up to good fortune for the Halos. However, another stretch of that magnitude could very well drop them into a hole too deep to climb out.
This marks the first time since 2006 that L.A. is not in first place at the All-Star break. It's no question the team has missed the presence of first baseman Kendry Morales, who was in the midst of a big season before breaking his leg during a walk-off home run celebration in late-May. Manager Mike Scioscia has confirmed the Angels are looking to add another bat, but not to rent a player for the remainder of the season.
"We know that one person is not going to fill Kendry Morales' shoes and what he brings to the team," Scioscia told the team's website. "He's the one hitter in the middle of our lineup that really makes everyone around him better. I think that speaks volume to his talents. That being said, I think that our offensive lineup -- if people can play to their capabilities -- will be deep enough for us to absorb a lot of that and to give ourselves an opportunity to score runs and support what we think is a good pitching staff."
WHAT NOW FOR THE MARINERS?
When the Seattle Mariners dealt Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers on Friday, general manager Jack Zduriencik all but threw in the towel on the 2010 season. Among the most disappointing teams during the first half of the season, the Mariners have to be at or near the top.
When you look back at the expectations following a flurry of offseason moves, to where Seattle (35-53) is now, 15 games back in the division, it's a sobering reality of just how far the team has strayed from its intended path. And now, the ace is gone, and plenty of questions remain.
At the forefront of those questions is, what exactly did the team get in return for its departed ace?
In addition to receiving three prospects from Texas, the key to the deal was 23-year-old first baseman Justin Smoak, who came through the Rangers' minor league system with such high hopes. But he struggled in his first taste of big league action, hitting .209 in 70 games with the Rangers. Initial reports on Friday had a deal in place for Seattle to land Yankees prized catching prospect Jesus Montero, among others. However, that deal ultimately fell through, and Zduriencik acted quickly on Plan B when the Rangers changed their mind on dealing Smoak.
Still, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is preaching patience with the youngster, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his Seattle debut.
"I keep trying to get people to understand, this kid is just starting his career, really," Wakamatsu said. "To be traded and come over with the expectations and all those things, he's got to work some things out. We've seen him, and I've seen him. He's awfully impressive, but we're going to have to be patient with him."
A'S STILL IN THE HUNT
Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane does not have a reputation for making blockbuster deals at the trade deadline to improve his ballclub. Despite the fact that his team is a manageable 7 1/2 games back of the Rangers, who so far have made the biggest splash of the trading season, the rumor mill has been pin drop-quiet regarding any potential deals involving the A's.
Oakland boasts the AL's third-ranked team ERA (3.85) thanks in part to All- Stars Trevor Cahill (9-3, 2.94) and Andrew Bailey (1.70, 18 SV). That said, if Beane were to make a deal before the trade deadline, at the top of his wish list would have to be one word: power.
The A's rank last in the majors with 57 home runs, and that's even with four home runs in a pair of wins over the Angels this weekend. Prior to blasting three homers against the Angels' Scott Kazmir on Saturday night, Oakland had gone 23 straight games without a multi-homer game.
According to manager Bob Geren, we should be seeing more long balls in the second half, regardless of what Beane does or does not do at the trade deadline.
"I'm trying to think who's below their career norm at this point," Geren told the Oakland Tribune. "(Kurt) Suzuki has 10, so he's pretty much on pace. (Kevin Kouzmanoff) will probably hit more in the second half than he did in the first half (8). Same thing with (Mark) Ellis, and you know Jack (Cust) will, too."
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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